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Oil Pauses Rally as Inventories Rise and Geopolitical Moves Grab Attention

Oil prices eased in Asian trade on Wednesday after a four-day rally, as an unexpected build in U.S. crude stocks and President Trump’s Middle East visit tempered earlier optimism from a U.S.–China tariff truce and softer inflation data.


H1: Crude Prices Slip Amid Inventory Bump

  • Brent (June): –0.4% to $66.38/barrel

  • WTI (June): –0.4% to $63.01/barrel
    (as of 22:02 ET / 02:02 GMT)

After jumping over 2.5% on Tuesday—near a two-week high—both benchmarks retraced as the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories.


Tariff Truce and Inflation Data Fuel Rally

Monday’s U.S.–China Deal

  • U.S. cuts China tariffs to 30% (from 145%)

  • China trims U.S. duties to 10% (from 125%)

  • 90-day pause spurred a risk-on shift, lifting oil on stronger demand prospects.

Softer U.S. Inflation

  • April CPI rose 2.3% YoY (vs. 2.4% expected) and 0.2% MoM

  • Contained inflation reinforced hopes that lower tariffs won’t reignite price pressures—supporting economic growth and crude demand.


Middle East Developments Under Scrutiny

  • Trump in Saudi Arabia:

    • Vowed to lift Syria sanctions

    • Secured $600 billion in Saudi investments for the U.S.

  • Iran Sanctions: U.S. Treasury targeted firms shipping Iranian oil to China, adding supply-side uncertainty after recent nuclear-dialogue progress.


Inventory Surprise and Technical Levels

The API’s weekly report showed U.S. commercial crude stocks rose unexpectedly—contrary to forecasts for a draw—capping gains. Traders will await the EIA’s official inventory data for confirmation.


Tracking Real-Time Oil Prices

Stay on top of shifting benchmarks and futures curves—such as contango/backwardation—via the Commodities API, which provides live and historical quotes for Brent, WTI, and other energy commodities.


What to Watch

  1. EIA Inventory Release: A larger-than-expected build could push prices lower.

  2. Gulf Political Signals: Any further U.S.–Gulf cooperation or Iran tensions will influence supply forecasts.

  3. Trade Negotiations: Progress beyond the 90-day tariff pause could underpin longer-term demand growth.

By combining real-time oil data with key inventory and geopolitical events, investors and traders can navigate the next inflection points in the crude market.

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