The Sevens Report has revised its valuation targets for the S&P 500 Index heading into the second half of 2025, citing a shift to 2026 earnings expectations and increasing macroeconomic risks.
Updated Valuation Scenarios
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Base Case: The new fair value range is 6,195 to 6,343, with a midpoint at 6,269, based on 2026 EPS of $295.
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The index recently tested this midpoint, but failed to sustain momentum above it, signaling a market “priced to perfection.”
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Upside Scenario: If fundamentals improve, the report sees the S&P 500 reaching 6,600 (EPS of $300 and a 22x P/E multiple), with a breakout potentially extending to 6,860, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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Downside Risk: In a weaker macro setup, the index could fall to 4,675–4,950, with 4,813 as a critical support zone. A break below that level may trigger a bear market drop to 3,675, or nearly 40% off current highs.
đź“Š Analyze the S&P 500’s real-time multiples using the Sector P/E Ratio API, which shows valuation divergence across sectors relative to market averages.
Why It Matters
Markets are now navigating:
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Elevated valuations
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Tariff-related inflationary concerns
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Uncertain earnings trajectory
As the S&P 500 flirts with its fundamental midpoint, technical levels and EPS assumptions remain in focus for both bulls and bears.
📉 Monitor earnings trends behind valuation estimates via the Price Target Summary API, which consolidates forward-looking analyst forecasts for all S&P 500 constituents.
