BTIG lowered its price target on American Express (NYSE: AXP) to $285 from $328 while maintaining a Sell rating, citing valuation concerns amid declining consumer finance sector multiples.
The firm said the target reduction was driven primarily by valuation adjustments rather than changes to its underlying thesis. The new target implies approximately 16x BTIG’s 2026 EPS estimate and 14x its 2027 estimate, slightly above the company’s historical forward P/E average of around 15x.
BTIG reiterated concerns that American Express’ premium customer base is facing increasing competition and potential weakness among super-prime consumers, particularly younger white-collar professionals.
The firm also noted disappointment that Amex’s projected revenue growth for 2026 remains similar to 2025 levels despite the company’s major refresh of its flagship card products.
Commercial spending volumes also continue to lag behind competitors, according to BTIG, particularly compared with fintech companies that have gained traction in commercial lending and enterprise expense management.
The brokerage argued that American Express’ commercial offerings appear less competitive and said it has not observed sufficient urgency from management in addressing those shortcomings.
BTIG also warned that potential economic risks tied to the adoption of artificial intelligence could disproportionately affect Amex’s younger white-collar customer base, which increasingly relies on its lending platform to support spending.
Additionally, declines in capital markets valuations — including write-downs in private credit investments — could negatively impact the company’s client base.
While BTIG said these factors do not pose an existential threat to American Express, they could limit growth prospects. The firm concluded that the company’s current valuation remains above historical levels despite trends that do not appear stronger than past performance.
