Markets are in wait-and-watch mode. After Bitcoin hit record highs this week and U.S. inflation data surprised on the upside, traders are now weighing the impact of upcoming U.S. crypto legislation, aggressive trade policies, and the potential unwind of overbought currency positions.
Bitcoin Holds Steady as U.S. House Opens Crypto Debate
Bitcoin briefly soared above $123,000, only to pull back toward $116,000 amid profit-taking and global trade worries. As of Thursday morning, it recovered slightly, trading at $118,747, bolstered by progress on U.S. crypto regulation.
The House of Representatives narrowly approved a motion to start debate on several digital asset bills, including:
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GENIUS Act, focused on stablecoin oversight
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CLARITY Act, aimed at classifying tokens under securities or commodities laws
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Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, to block any Federal Reserve-issued CBDC
The approval came after a nine-hour GOP stalemate was broken with interventions from President Trump and Speaker Johnson. Still, the narrow 217–212 vote highlights how fragile support for these crypto bills remains.
👉 For daily updates on Bitcoin and major cryptos, monitor the Cryptocurrency Daily API, which offers real-time prices, volumes, and market trends.
CPI Surprises, Tariff Risks Resurface
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter than expected, with core CPI inflation rising to 2.9% in June. While rent inflation is easing, durable and nondurable goods prices — many of which are tied to imports — are showing new signs of pressure.
According to Yardeni Research, Trump’s 25% tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum, and copper could drive up inflation further, particularly in sectors like:
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Appliances (+2.2% MoM)
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Footwear and apparel
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Prescription drugs
Trump is calling for rate cuts from 4.33% to 1%, but the Fed is resisting. With inflation still above target and tariffs clouding the outlook, Jerome Powell’s FOMC is unlikely to act fast.
👉 Dive into detailed inflation insights using the Economic Calendar API, which tracks CPI, PCE, Fed speeches, and macroeconomic indicators in real-time.
EUR/USD Warning: CTA Selling Could Escalate
Bank of America warns that EUR/USD could face significant CTA-driven selling if it breaks below 1.1519. Their models show 100% long exposure across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. A breakdown could trigger a cascade of systematic unwinds, pressuring the euro and boosting the dollar further.
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GBP/USD is also at risk, with the next unwind trigger at 1.3243
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CTAs are already exiting stretched long positions in GBP
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BofA models predict buying pressure for USD vs JPY and CAD if the dollar rally continues
In contrast, equity CTAs remain bullish. Positions in Nasdaq-100 futures are near consensus longs across all timeframes. But that could flip quickly: a 2% drop triggers minor selling, while a **5% drawdown sparks broad liquidation.
Bottom Line:
Bitcoin and equities are both near peak levels, but macro risks are building. The CPI print adds to rate uncertainty, while currency markets could shift sharply if EUR/USD breaks key levels. And on the crypto front, regulatory clarity is closer—but far from guaranteed.
Stay data-informed. Track the macro and crypto flows daily.
