Dow (NYSE:DOW) saw its share drop by 4% on Tuesday after BofA Securities downgraded it from Buy to Underperform and sharply lowered its price target to $28 from $44, citing mounting macroeconomic challenges, growing trade restrictions, and rising U.S. feedstock costs.
The firm had previously been bullish on Dow’s potential to benefit from a petrochemical and broader economic recovery. However, that recovery now appears delayed, and BofA has trimmed its 2025 and 2026 EBITDA forecasts by 17% and 23%, respectively, to $4.8 billion and $5.4 billion.
Adding to the concern is Dow’s $2 billion annual dividend, which now looks vulnerable as free cash flow shortfalls are projected to balloon to $2.6 billion over the next two years—more than double earlier estimates. Net leverage is also expected to remain near 3x through 2027.
Despite the stock already falling 19% since the April 2nd tariff news, BofA believes further downside remains given the deteriorating earnings outlook, valuation concerns, and heightened balance sheet pressure.
