Compass Point upgraded Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) from Sell to Neutral, citing early signs of a potential retail trading rebound fueled by rising altcoin prices. The company’s shares rose more than 5% intra-day today.
While recent data suggests Coinbase is on pace for just $1 billion in annualized EBITDA based on April and May trends, the firm sees momentum building for a seasonal uptick in altcoin activity—a dynamic often referred to as a mini “Alt Season.”
Analysts noted that Coinbase’s fundamentals appear increasingly disconnected from Bitcoin’s performance, with COIN shares down 20% year-to-date even as Bitcoin has gained 10%. Instead, Coinbase’s business is now seen as more sensitive to movements in altcoins, which influence both trading volumes and the supply of USDC.
Though a summer altcoin rally could provide short-term support, the report cautions that broader structural challenges remain for the altcoin space, including price stagnation following major centralized exchange listings.
