“Uncertainty” Dominates IMF-World Bank Sentiment
Citi strategists report that negative sentiment toward U.S. assets reached “extreme” levels during last week’s IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington. Investors cited “uncertainty” more than any other concern, reflecting fears that President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda could tip the economy into recession.
“Most investors seem to be expecting a recession as a result of the tariff war and associated uncertainty,” the Citi note stated.
Key Takeaways from Citi’s Client Note
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Recession fears: Broad skepticism about U.S. growth estimates, amplified by “overly optimistic” cost-cutting expectations.
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Yield-curve positioning: A prevailing tilt toward a steeper yield curve, with traders paying the long end of the U.S. Treasury market.
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Dollar outlook: Elevated bets on a weaker U.S. dollar amid shifting policy risks.
Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Trends
Reflecting the sour mood, analyst downgrades on U.S. financials and industrials have outnumbered upgrades, underscoring the breadth of skepticism. Investors can monitor these shifts in sentiment via FMP’s Up-Down Grades by Company API, which tracks real-time analyst rating changes.
Possible Relief Through Trade Deals
Despite the gloom, Citi remains hopeful that a series of bilateral agreements—potentially with the U.K., India, Japan, and South Korea—could ease tariff fears. A breakthrough with China remains the most pivotal, as the White House continues all-out negotiations.
