GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson warns that Wall Street’s consensus for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) second‑quarter delivery growth may be significantly overstated, given rising trade tensions and early sales data indicating slowdowns in key regions.
Key Takeaways from GLJ Research
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Consensus vs. Reality
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“The best investing opportunities arise when there are dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to happen,” writes Johnson, suggesting a material gap for Tesla deliveries.
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Challenging Projections
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Johnson critiques independent analyst Troy Teslike’s forecast of:
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27% quarter‑over‑quarter growth in Europe
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25% growth in China
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15% growth in the U.S.
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41% growth in Other Markets
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He points to Tesla’s own data showing a 32.3% year‑on‑year decline in China deliveries in the first half of the quarter.
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Trade War Headwinds
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2018 Precedent
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The 2018 U.S.‑China trade war imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on U.S.‑made vehicles, materially denting Tesla’s competitiveness.
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Current Tensions
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With tariffs now at 145% on some Chinese exports and Beijing retaliating, Johnson warns that similar forces could again hamper Tesla’s global delivery volumes.
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Brand Sentiment in Europe
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Elon Musk’s Polarizing Image
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Musk’s favorability in Europe is near record lows—net –53 in the U.K. and –52 in Germany (YouGov, Jan 2025)—potentially curbing demand in a critical market.
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Looking Ahead: Earnings and Delivery Announcements
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Earnings as a Catalyst
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Tesla’s Q2 earnings release will provide official delivery figures and management commentary, a crucial test of these forecasts.
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Track the Date
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Investors can monitor Tesla’s upcoming earnings date via the
🔗 Earnings Calendar API from Financial Modeling Prep, which lists scheduled reports and actual delivery statistics once released.
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Johnson’s analysis underscores a potential disconnect between bullish delivery models and on‑the‑ground sales data, suggesting investors should prepare for a possible downward revision in Tesla’s Q2 performance.
