Boot Barn (NYSE:BOOT) shares rose more than 1% pre-market today after JPMorgan increased its price target on the company to $207 from $196, reiterating its Overweight rating following a virtual roadshow with company leadership that reinforced confidence in the retailer’s multi-year earnings potential.
The firm’s updated analysis projects fiscal 2026 EPS of $6.95, well above management’s guided range of $5.50 to $6.40 and the Street consensus of $6.24. JPMorgan sees three key drivers behind the potential upside: stronger-than-expected same-store sales performance, margin expansion through exclusive brand growth, and the ability to offset tariff headwinds with targeted pricing.
Quarter-to-date same-store sales through May 14 are tracking at +9%, ahead of management’s full-quarter guidance of +4% to +6%. The firm also sees over 300 basis points of potential same-store sales outperformance in the second half, as management has built a flat macro assumption into its guidance despite baseline trends closer to 8.9%. Reinvigorated demand in the Work Boot category, which represents about 20% to 25% of total sales, adds another layer of idiosyncratic upside.
On the margin side, exclusive brands could contribute meaningfully to gross profit expansion, especially if Boot Barn raises prices slightly in line with or below third-party brand averages to absorb tariff-related cost pressures.
