Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson views the selloff after Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 as a rate-driven shakeout rather than a fundamental shortfall. He reminds investors that Moody’s was the last of the major agencies to downgrade, a process that began in 2011, and argues that equities still look attractive on dips below key technical levels.
Wilson warns that stocks’ correlation with rising 10-year Treasury yields could turn negative if yields break above 4.50%. Yet he points out that volatility eased once the effective U.S.–China tariff rate plunged from 145% to 30%, “checking off the first catalyst for a durable rally.” The burden now rests on upward earnings revisions to sustain any advance.
Investors tracking sector rotations can use FMP’s Ratios TTM API to compare trailing-twelve-month valuations across Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Staples and identify where consensus revisions are most pronounced. And with rate-cut expectations fading, stay alert to the Fed’s next moves via the Economics Calendar API, which flags speaker events and policy meetings that could tip yield trajectories.
Key Takeaways:
-
A sustained break above 4.50% on the 10-year could spark further rate-sensitive selling.
-
Industrials appear poised to lead on earnings-revision breadth, while consumer-oriented sectors may lag.
-
Wilson still favors “buying the dip” when yields pressure stocks, targeting pockets of cyclical strength.
