After dropping 14% since the H20 export ban to China, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) may be setting up for a rebound, according to Bank of America analysts. Despite near-term headwinds, BofA reiterates a Buy rating and highlights attractive valuations against long-term potential.
Four Overhangs, Now Largely Priced In
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China Sales
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Exposure: China accounted for ~13-14% of Nvidia’s revenue.
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H20 Impact: Baked in a 3–6% data-center sales cut; they view this risk as “de-risked.”
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AI Diffusion Rule
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Timing: Potential implementation as early as May 15.
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Worst Case: Could shave ~10% of sales and up to 11% of EPS.
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Gross Margins
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Current Pressure: Cuts and cost inflation have compressed margins.
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Recovery: BofA forecasts margins improving in the second half as Blackwell scales and Blackwell Ultra ramps.
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Cloud CapEx Visibility
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Uncertainty: Limited clarity on 2026 spend from cloud service providers.
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Outlook: “Needs a few more quarters” for CSPs to provide guidance.
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Valuation and Long-Term Upside
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Rich vs. Cheap: Trades at 19× CY26 P/E—well below its historical ~30× median.
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Adjusted EPS Estimates: Fiscal 2026/2027 forecasts now reflect full China/H20 cuts.
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Price Target: Lowered to $150 (from $160), yet BofA views current volatility as a buying window.
Monitoring Nvidia’s Profitability Metrics
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This API delivers up-to-date trailing-twelve-month ratios—such as net margin, return on equity, and P/E—essential for assessing how near-term pressures are resolving and comparing current multiples to historical benchmarks.
