]Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, extending last week’s volatility as investors weighed the knock‑on effects of U.S. tariffs on global growth alongside rising OPEC+ output and fresh signs of U.S.‑Iran nuclear dialogue.
Price Snapshot (as of 02:55 GMT)
-
Brent Crude: down $1.10 (–1.6%) to $66.86/bbl
-
WTI: down $1.11 (–1.7%) to $63.57/bbl
Key Drivers
-
Tariff‑Led Demand Concerns
Investors worry that U.S. tariffs on key trading partners will slow economic activity and curb fuel consumption growth, weighing heavily on sentiment. -
OPEC+ Supply Increase
The producer alliance plans to boost output by 411,000 bpd from May—partially offset by voluntary cuts but still adding pressure to global balances. -
U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks
Progress in Washington‑Tehran negotiations to draft a framework deal eased fears of a renewed oil embargo, reducing a key supply‑risk premium. -
Recession Odds Rising
A Reuters poll (April 17) puts the chance of a U.S. recession in the next year near 50%, underscoring how tariff policy is feeding broader economic anxiety.
What’s Ahead
-
U.S. Data Releases: Flash PMI readings across manufacturing and services will offer fresh clues on the tariff impact on economic momentum—and by extension, fuel demand.
-
OPEC+ Monitoring: Any deviation from agreed output changes or unexpected production cuts could swing prices back into a tighter range.
-
Policy Signals: Renewed Fed or White House commentary on tariffs will remain a volatility trigger for oil markets.
Track Upcoming Economic Events
Stay on top of pivotal macro releases—like PMI, GDP, and central bank announcements—that shape oil demand forecasts via the
🔗 Economics Calendar – Economics Data API from Financial Modeling Prep.
This API provides real‑time scheduling and historical data for key economic indicators affecting energy markets.
With tariffs clouding demand prospects and supply dynamics shifting, oil traders face a delicate balancing act this week as they parse incoming data and policy signals for direction.
