March Selloff Sets the Stage for a Potential April Rally
The S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to close March with a 6% decline, marking its worst month since September 2022 and the most challenging March since 2020. However, historical data suggests that April could bring relief.
📊 Key Takeaways from BTIG Analyst Jonathan Krinsky:
✔ Since World War II, there have been seven instances where March saw a decline greater than 3%.
✔ In each of those seven cases, the S&P 500 rebounded in April, averaging a 5.92% gain.
✔ From April to December, the market ended higher in six out of seven instances, with 2001 as the only exception (-1.05%).
⏳ Will History Repeat?
While Krinsky remains cautious on the market’s medium-term outlook, he acknowledges that April’s setup leans bullish based on past patterns.
Market Indicators & Technical Signals
📉 S&P 500 Retest & Volatility Index (VIX) Divergence
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The S&P 500 retested its mid-March intraday low (5504) before bouncing back.
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The VIX (Volatility Index) did not reach a new high when the S&P 500 dipped—a similar pattern was seen in January before a rally.
📌 What This Means for Investors:
✔ A historical pattern of rebounds in April could provide buying opportunities.
✔ The VIX divergence suggests a potential short-term bottom for equities.
✔ Expect volatility, but odds favor some relief for the market in the coming weeks.
Tracking Market Trends – Real-Time Data
To monitor market performance and technical indicators, check out these APIs:
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Sector Historical API
Track sector performance to identify potential rebound opportunities. -
Technical Intraday (Williams) API
Analyze short-term technical trends, including momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
Final Thoughts
While April historically favors gains after a rough March, economic uncertainties remain, including:
✔ Trump’s upcoming tariffs and their impact on global trade.
✔ March’s jobs report, which will provide insights into economic strength and Fed policy direction.
✔ Inflation risks and whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its interest rate stance.
🔎 Investor Takeaway:
Will the S&P 500 repeat its historical April rally, or will macroeconomic risks keep pressure on the market?
