After months of tariff turbulence, Barclays believes the storm may be passing.
The investment bank has raised its year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,050, up from a previous 5,900 projection, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street institutions—including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and UBS—that now see more upside for U.S. equities.
Why Barclays Is More Bullish Now
According to analysts at the firm, “peak uncertainty” around U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies has likely passed, creating room for incremental valuation growth. The easing of headline risks, coupled with expectations for more accommodative tax and regulatory policies, has fueled confidence in the benchmark index.
Barclays also laid out a 2026 target of 6,700 for the S&P 500, citing anticipated corporate earnings growth as a key driver.
Tariffs: A Lingering, but Manageable Risk
While a clearer trade outlook has emerged, risks remain. Trump recently doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, part of a broader push for what his administration calls “reciprocal trade”.
An executive proclamation signed Tuesday sets the new duties into motion, starting Wednesday. Meanwhile, countries have until early July to present revised trade offers as the White House considers the next steps.
Despite this, Barclays sees the overall policy trajectory as less disruptive than initially feared. The delay in implementing harsher import taxes and potential openings for trade negotiation have helped temper some of the worst-case fears that dogged markets earlier this year.
Headwinds to Watch
Barclays analysts still warn of:
-
Elevated interest rates, tied to fiscal pressures
-
Potential weakness in consumer spending
-
Lingering volatility around tariff escalation
Tracking Market Sentiment
For investors looking to stay ahead of Wall Street’s shifting outlook, two key metrics are worth monitoring:
-
Price Target Summary API — to view institutional forecasts for the S&P 500 and constituent stocks as sentiment shifts.
-
Financial Growth API — to analyze projected earnings-per-share and revenue growth that support index upside.
Final Thought
While the path forward may remain uneven, Wall Street’s tone is changing. With peak tariff fears receding and economic fundamentals holding up, the bulls are regaining their footing—just in time for a pivotal second half of 2025.
