Bridger Aerospace (NASDAQ: BAER) Misses Q2 Estimates as Stifel Lowers Price Target

• Bridger Aerospace (NASDAQ: BAER) reported a Q2 loss of $0.13 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a $0.01 loss.
• Stifel Nicolaus reportedly lowered its price target to $3.00, representing approximately 119% upside from a stock price of $1.37.
• Reported revenue declined 1% year over year, but increased 16% after excluding non-recurring return-to-service work from both periods.
• The company reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Bridger Aerospace (NASDAQ: BAER) provides aerial firefighting and wildfire management services to government agencies in the United States and international markets. The company operates specialized firefighting and surveillance aircraft, including Super Scoopers and multi-mission aircraft. With a market capitalization of approximately $78.96 million, Bridger Aerospace’s stock traded at around $1.37 per share, with a daily range between $1.28 and $1.47.

On August 10, 2026, Stifel Nicolaus reportedly lowered its price target for Bridger Aerospace to $3.00 from $3.35 while maintaining its positive rating. Based on a stock price of $1.37, the revised target represented potential upside of approximately 119%. Price targets are analysts’ estimates and do not guarantee future performance.

The updated outlook followed Bridger Aerospace’s second-quarter 2026 earnings report. The company reported a loss of $0.13 per diluted share, compared with a loss of $0.12 per share in the prior-year quarter. According to Zacks, the result missed its consensus estimate of a $0.01 loss. 

Bridger Aerospace reported quarterly revenue of $30.49 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and declining approximately 1% from $30.75 million in the second quarter of 2025. However, the comparison was affected by non-recurring return-to-service work. Excluding that activity from both periods, revenue increased 16%, from $25.7 million to $29.7 million, primarily due to increased Super Scooper flight hours and continued demand for aerial firefighting services.

Profitability weakened during the quarter. The company recorded a net loss of $0.5 million, compared with net income of $0.3 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $8.1 million from $10.8 million, while interest expense increased to $6.6 million from $5.7 million.

Despite the quarterly miss, Bridger Aerospace reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance. The company expects revenue of $135 million to $145 million and adjusted EBITDA of $55 million to $60 million. Management pointed to longer aircraft task orders, increased wildfire activity, international expansion, and new surveillance and aircraft-modification contracts as potential growth drivers.

Recent developments include a $58 million contract with the Texas A&M Forest Service to provide three modified King Air 360 aircraft, the deployment of two Super Scoopers in Portugal, and the expansion of Bridger’s IGNIS wildfire intelligence platform. These initiatives could broaden the company’s revenue base beyond its traditional aerial firefighting operations.